England's defeat to Iceland tempers expectations for Euro 2024 - but that may not be a bad thing (2024)

England’s loss to Iceland in their final warm-up game before Euro 2024 is the first time they have lost their final match before a major international tournament since 1968.

Back then, the format of the European Championship saw just four teams qualify for the finals and Alf Ramsey’s England — the reigning world champions — subsequently lost their semi-final against Yugoslavia but won the third place play-off against the Soviet Union to take the bronze.

The last time England were in the European finals on German soil in 1988, they went into the tournament unbeaten in their previous eight games and expectations were high, but Bobby Robson’s side lost all three games to crash out at the group stage.

So Friday night’s defeat isn’t necessarily an omen of doom, but it does expose the problems manager Gareth Southgate faces as the action begins for real next weekend.

Only time will tell how significant these tactical and form issues are when England get their campaign under way against Serbia a week on Sunday. But after a week that saw more injury disappointment, especially to his defensive options, plus the impact on the rest of the squad of cutting popular figures like James Maddison, Jack Grealish and Harry Maguire, and being booed by England fans at the final whistle at Wembley, it will not have helped.

It will certainly put a dent in their status as pre-tournament favourites — but that may not be a bad thing.

England teams have historically gone into tournaments with a huge weight of expectation. The shirt has often weighed heavy on the players in big moments. England were among the favourites in the last major tournament held in Germany — the 2006 World Cup — but struggled to find their rhythm before exiting to Portugal on penalties in the quarter-finals.

In recent tournaments, though, things have been different under Gareth Southgate, who has fostered a more relaxed, light-hearted atmosphere around his camps. England have always had talented players but the difference during much of Southgate’s tenure, compared to earlier regimes, is that the players have been given the freedom to perform. In previous tournaments, Southgate has fostered an upbeat atmosphere in stark contrast to often sullen campaigns like the 2010 World Cup.

1 – England had just one shot on target against Iceland (Phil Foden, 21st minute), their fewest in a game since June 2021 versus Scotland (also one). Halted. pic.twitter.com/hoLYEDjX4Z

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) June 7, 2024

But against Iceland, the once-familiar shackles were back on. England’s players seemed inhibited and unsure. Their only shot on target came in the 21st minute, their lowest total in a game since the 0-0 draw against Scotland during Euro 2020.

While he admitted it wasn’t ideal, Southgate hopes the defeat can prove to be a blessing.

“It actually gives us a chance to really focus the mind, because these last games going into tournaments can be a little bit scrappy like that — in terms of focus, because players are worried about picking up an injury,” Southgate says. “(Victory) might also have masked some flaws that were apparent tonight.”

There is no question, though, that England are not heading to Germany in great shape. With so many missing because of injuries, including Harry Maguire, Ben Chilwell and Reece James, plus a doubt over Luke Shaw too, and so many trying to play their way back to match sharpness after issues, Southgate is taking a patched-up squad, many of whom are new to the environment, into battle.

“The physical side is a slight concern because we’ve got so many physical issues,” Southgate lamented. “We can’t hide the fact that we have got a lot of physical issues. That’s plain for everybody to see.

“The last qualifying games and the March games, again, with this one similar, we seem to be managing players physically, right the way through all of these matches.

“In the autumn, it was because we’d qualified, they had big club games coming up. We had withdrawals in March. That’s always the scenario as well. So, yeah, physically the team is not perfect and we’ve got to make the best of that.”

Southgate has been trying to protect some as they return from injuries, like Bukayo Saka, while others like Kieran Trippier and Anthony Gordon are trying to get back up to speed after knocks, but time is about to run out.

The concern, as well as the physical issues, is how much the recent lack of cohesion will affect the squad psychologically. They will know they are not entering the action fully loaded, but Anthony Gordon doesn’t believe losing their final warm-up game will have a detrimental effect.

“No, I think it’s good practice,” he said after the game.

“You know it doesn’t matter unless we do it in the tournament. It’s in the tournament where it matters and that’s when we’ll do it.

“We don’t expect to lose these games, so it’s a bit of a smack in the nose and maybe that wakes us up so we can use it.”

Losing against Iceland was unexpected and certainly a setback ahead of the Serbia game, but it doesn’t have to be a huge body blow.

If it eases the pressure and stems the flood of folk singing, ‘It’s coming home,’ then that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

As long as several of Southgate’s men recover physically and mentally, it could actually be the humbling experience that could prove to be a blessing in disguise.

We’ll only find out for sure on June 16.

(Header photo: Justin Setterfield – The FA/The FA via Getty Images)

Rob has been a journalist for twenty years and for the past ten he has covered Leicester City, including their Premier League title success of 2016.He is the author of 5000-1, The Leicester City Story. Follow Rob on Twitter @RobTannerLCFC